可以使用直接的蠻力方法來找到最佳投資組合。

考慮簡單的遊戲。有一個有 55% 機率獲勝的有偏見的硬幣。模擬器作為一個人玩 100$ 玩 N = 1000 連續遊戲。模擬器嘗試所有可能的投注分數，並選擇最大贏的一個作為最佳投注分數。

$$ \max_{fraction} W = \max_{fraction} \prod_{i=1..N}R_{i} $$

讓我擔心的是，正如維基百科所說，凱利標準優化了增長的對數，而這種蠻力模擬優化了最終的金額：

凱利賭注大小是通過最大化財富對數的期望值來找到的，這相當於最大化期望的幾何增長率。

但是，我相信這是同一回事。凱利標準試圖優化平均增長率

$$ R_{average} = W^{1/n} = (\prod_{i = 1..n}R_{i})^{1/n} = {1\over n} \sum_{i = 1..n}log(R_{i}) $$

所以，蠻力和凱利的區別是

$$ \max_{fraction} W \space \space \space \space \space vs. \space \space \space \max_{fraction} R_{average} $$

但是，應該是一樣的吧？要優化的參數（投注分數） $ W^{1/n} $ 應該和優化一樣 $ W $ .

凱利解決方案

$$ fraction = {p(b+1)-1 \over b} = {0.55(1+1) - 1 \over 1} = 0.1 $$

模擬的解是 0.11

編碼

結果

risky play with 0.9 fraction won 0
safe play with 0.05 fraction won 5756.17
optimal play with 0.11 fraction won 27601.98

執行並查看它的執行情況

// Biased coint with 55% probability of win, generated separately 
// because I don't trust built-in random generator in JavaScript.
const tosses = [1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0]

// Playing with 100$
const play = (fraction) => {  
 let money = 100
 for (const toss of tosses) {
   // Win when `toss == true`
   money = toss == 1 ? money + money * fraction : money - money * fraction
 }
 return round(money)
}

// Playing two simple strategies 
// - risky - always bet 0.9
// - safe - always bet 0.05
println(`risky play with ${0.9} fraction won ${play(0.9)}`)
println(`safe play with ${0.05} fraction won ${play(0.05)}`)

// Searching for optimal fraction
let max_win = 0, optimal_fraction = undefined
for (let fraction = 0.01; fraction <= 0.9; fraction += 0.01) {
 const win = play(fraction)

 // Optimization criteria - maximum win after N plays
 const is_better = win > max_win

 if (is_better) {
   max_win = win
   optimal_fraction = fraction
 }
}

println(`optimal play with ${round(optimal_fraction)} fraction won ${max_win}`)

function println(msg) {
 console.log(msg)
}

function round(v) { return Math.round(v * 100) / 100 }

更新

經典凱利準則的程式碼，帶對數，操場

我想我知道為什麼首選對數。它在計算上更加穩定，並且不會以指數增長溢出數字。並且對數比原始增長更平滑，更容易使用。

// Biased coint with 55% probability of win, generated separately 
// because I don't trust built-in random generator in JavaScript.
const tosses = [1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0]

// Playing with 100$
const play = (fraction) => {  
 let sum_ln = 0
 for (const toss of tosses) {
   // Win when `toss == true`
   let rate = toss == 1 ? (1 + fraction) : (1 - fraction)
   sum_ln += Math.log(rate)
 }
 return sum_ln / tosses.length
}

// Playing two simple strategies 
// - risky - always bet 0.9
// - safe - always bet 0.05
println(`risky play with ${0.9} fraction won ${play(0.9)}`)
println(`safe play with ${0.05} fraction won ${play(0.05)}`)

// Searching for optimal fraction
let max_win = 0, optimal_fraction = undefined
for (let fraction = 0.01; fraction <= 0.9; fraction += 0.01) {
 const win = play(fraction)

 // Optimization criteria - maximum win after N plays
 const is_better = win > max_win

 if (is_better) {
   max_win = win
   optimal_fraction = fraction
 }
}

println(`optimal play with ${round(optimal_fraction)} fraction won ${max_win}`)

function println(msg) {
 console.log(msg)
}

function round(v) { return Math.round(v * 100) / 100 }

正如你所懷疑的，你有一個錯誤。你說：

$$ R_{average} = W^{1/n} = (\prod_{i = 1..n}R_{i})^{1/n} = {1\over n} \sum_{i = 1..n}log(R_{i}). $$

請注意，您記錄了日誌並保留了等式符號。你真正的意思是

$$ \log R_{average} = {1\over n} \sum_{i = 1..n}log(R_{i}). $$ 所以你並沒有真正比較

$$ \max_{f} W \space \space \space \space \space vs. \space \space \space \max_{f} R_{average}, $$

反而 $$ \max_{f} W \space \space \space \space \space vs. \space \space \space \max_{f} \log R_{average}= \frac 1 n \max_{f} \log W. $$

最後，讓你感到困惑的是

但是，應該是一樣的吧？要優化的參數（投注分數） $ W^{1/n} $ 應該和優化一樣 $ W $ .

你看， $ \text{argmax}_f W \neq \text{argmax}_f \log W $ 在一般情況下（以及在凱利的情況下）。

引用自：https://quant.stackexchange.com/questions/50837